The Week in Space and Physics #7
There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. The past week unfortunately falls into the latter of Vladimir Lenin’s two categories. Russia’s reckless invasion of Ukraine has forever changed the world; the repercussions of Putin’s decision, even if the tanks and guns were to fall silent tomorrow, will be felt for decades.
The war in Ukraine will affect many fields of human endeavour. The space industry is no exception to this. Russia and the West have a long and intertwined history in space, stretching from the Cold War space race, through the détente of Apollo and Soyuz collaboration in the 1970s, to the peaceful building of the International Space Station.
This long rivalry and cooperation between the two space powers has done much to drive the progress of space exploration. Indeed, for much of the 20th Century the Soviet space programme was clearly ahead: putting the first satellites and humans in space, landing the first probes on the Moon and on Venus, building the first orbiting space station. The war in Ukraine, however, likely symbolises its end. Ultimately it could mean the collapse of Russia as a space-faring nation.
In truth the Russian space programme has been in decline for years. Mounting corruption has seen funds siphoned off into the pockets of oligarchs. Ambitious projects have fallen away, proud relics – such as the Buran space shuttle – have been lost or destroyed, innovation has ground to a halt. Russia today is a shadow of its former self, incapable of replicating the glorious achievements of the 1950s and 60s.
The Western sanctions on Russia, however, sound a death knell for what remains of the space programme. First, and most immediately, Roscosmos will face a financial crisis. The Russian currency is in freefall, high-tech imports are hard to find and qualified staff are fleeing rising repression.
Russia has also lost a major source of foreign income: launching Western satellites from its Baikonur Cosmodrome. One big customer, British company OneWeb, had half a dozen launches planned on Russian rockets, with the next due on March 4. Following the new sanctions, however, Russia placed demands on OneWeb, including an order for the British government to sell its stake in the company.
OneWeb refused, and subsequently suspended all launches from Baikonur. The European Space Agency, too, has blocked further progress on integrating its Mars rover, ExoMars, on a Russian rocket. The rover, already running years late, was scheduled for launch in September this year. That now looks unlikely to happen.
Collaboration on the International Space Station is another issue. Russia controls vital segments of the station, including propulsion modules. Though the partnership seems to be continuing for now, its future is very much in question. Should Russia choose to withdraw, however, they would have very little of a space programme left.
China Outlines a Plan for Space
One possible way forward for Russia is China. The nation is a rising power in space, with rovers on the Moon and Mars and its own space station orbiting the Earth. Russia and China have already signed plans to jointly explore the Moon – though it must be said that much of the work will be done by China, with Russia a junior partner.
In a paper published at the end of January, the Chinese government outlined ambitious goals for its space programme over the next five years. Though there is little truly new in China’s plan – most of the goals have already been achieved by America or Europe – if successful it will mark a major step forward in their capabilities.
Three more probes are planned for the Moon, building on China’s successful Chang’e programme. Each will focus on the Lunar south pole, the target area for the nation’s future Moon base. Chang’e 6 will return more Moon rocks to Earth, allowing Chinese scientists to study the geological potential of the Moon. Chang’e 7 will demonstrate landing techniques, and Chang’e 8 – foreseen for 2030 – will be a testbed for the future base.
Beyond that, however, China is eyeing up asteroids and the outer planets. A spacecraft named ZhengHe will visit the nearby asteroid Kamo’oalewa, before heading for the comet 311P/PANSTARRS. Plans are also afoot to visit Jupiter: China is studying a design that could see a probe visiting the giant planet and its moons in the 2030s.
China, too, is intent on challenging America in astronomy. The country already hosts one of the world’s largest radio telescopes – a mammoth five hundred meter wide dish in south-western China. Soon a space telescope will join that behemoth: a Hubble-class telescope known as Xuntian. Though slightly smaller than Hubble, the telescope has a wider viewer, thus allowing it to capture more of the sky in each image. Launch could come as soon as 2024.
International collaboration is a key part of the plan. A new geopolitical race seems to be emerging in space, with China and America keen to sign as many partners to their Moon programmes as possible. Russia is one certain collaborator for China - but many other nations in Europe and Asia are potential partners.
Artemis Reviewed
Can America land astronauts on the Moon in 2025? Probably not. In statements made to the US Congress, NASA officials gave a mixed verdict on how realistic that target is, with some describing 2025 as a stretch goal. The agency needs to complete several projects to be ready for the Moon. Those include new space suits, tests of the new SLS rocket and work on the lander system.
Each of these projects has faced delays of their own, and further problems with any of them will make 2025 impossible to reach. As one former NASA official said, a date between 2025 and 2027 is more realistic at the moment.
The hearings before the House Science Committee did, however, reveal the extraordinary costs of the SLS programme. A single launch – including the rocket, capsule and ground segment – costs over four billion dollars. That figure applies to each of the first four flights of SLS, but does not include the mammoth cost of developing the rocket in the first place.
Such high prices are certainly unsustainable. If NASA is going to have any kind of lasting presence on the Moon – which the growing rivalry with China would imply – they will need a cheaper way to reach the Moon. Fortunately NASA has that – SpaceX’s rockets could, if they were approved, ferry astronauts and hardware to the Moon for a fraction of the cost of the SLS.
That, however, may be a politically difficult decision to make. It’s likely the SLS – which is a massive source of federal money for states and companies – will linger on as an expensive and rarely used flagship.
Solar Farms and Rainfall
Solar panels, a new study suggests, could radically alter the climate of the Middle East. Placing large amounts of them along the Red Sea coast would make the land less reflective; thus absorbing more heat from the Sun. That, models found, should strengthen winds blowing across the sea, bringing more water and rain over land.
If so, that would be a boon. Solar panels could offer huge amounts of clean energy and bring much needed water to an arid region. That could help solve the current water crisis in places like Saudi Arabia; both by adding to inland water supplies and by powering energy-hungry desalination plants.
The authors of the study caution that more work is needed – models are often simplified and miss details. Still, such studies show how local and small scale actions can influence regional climates for the better.