The Week in Space and Physics: Is Science Stagnating?
On disruptive research, nuclear fusion, comets and an overheating Soyuz capsule
In 1905 Einstein published four papers. For the first he won the Nobel prize; in the rest he introduced special relativity, proved the atomic nature of matter and outlined his famous equation, E=mc². Any one of these four papers was, by itself, undoubtedly disruptive. Put together, they were enough to overthrow centuries of thought and set the foundation for a new age of physics.
Such disruptive papers are rare but important. They alter the fundamentals of scientific thought and open the doors to once unimaginable ideas. Yet most scientific papers are, by contrast, incremental, pushing forwards by building on what is already known. They are valuable, of course, but individually tend to make less progress.
For science to move forward a mixture of both types of paper is needed. Disruptive papers shift paradigms, true, but too many of them create instability, hindering the ability to make use of those new ideas. Incremental papers, meanwhile, help push boundaries forward; but, in the absence of disruption, bring diminishing returns.
It appears somewhat concerning, then, that a recent study found the share of disruptive papers to be decline. The trend holds across multiple fields - from computer science to physics - and has extended for half a decade, at least. Perhaps more worryingly, the decline comes during a period when scientific research has consumed more resources and brains than ever before; and as sharing and accessing information has become easier than ever.
For now, at least, we can only speculate as to the reasons why. Science certainly seems to be getting harder. Each new breakthrough needs more resources and ingenuity than before. Our academic systems may, too, be to blame: giving less room for new ideas to emerge and encouraging low risk research with clear outcomes.
The question of whether science is slowing or accelerating has haunted researchers for decades. Other studies have found signs that each new breakthrough takes more researchers; or fretted that declining future populations could spell an end to research altogether. If science is indeed getting harder - that’s to say, harder than our improved tools can compensate for - then at some point further progress may become impossible; out of reach of human ingenuity forever.
Those ideas stand in stark contrast to ideas that new technologies should accelerate progress. Computers, the Internet and artificial intelligence have all been hailed as aids to science. Yet, according to this study, they have done nothing to encourage more disruptive work.
Perhaps better access to the combined knowledge of humanity has merely allowed incremental work to flourish but done little for truly creative thinking. Changing that, ironically, may require some fresh ideas of its own.
Nuclear Fusion Delayed Again
The era of nuclear fusion will have to wait a little longer. That, sadly, was the conclusion of Pietro Barabaschi, the new director-general of an experimental reactor, ITER, under construction in France.
Construction problems, according to him, mean the project is likely to face years of delays. Instead of starting science in 2025, as planned, engineers will instead focus on fixing issues with its structure and design. That, unfortunately, pushes the likely start date of its experiments into the next decade.
But what, you might be thinking, about the recent achievement of nuclear ignition in America? Didn’t that promise to usher in the age of fusion? Unfortunately, that research is on a much smaller scale, and is still nowhere close to producing energy on an industrial level. More fundamentally, the research done in America, and that which will be done at ITER, rely on different methods of triggering the fusion reactions.
The French reactor is a tokamak; a device that has been used since the 1950s for fusion reactions. They rely on strong magnetic fields to hold a super-hot plasma made of hydrogen atoms heated to millions of degrees. The fusion reactions take place within that plasma; generating heat that drives electrical turbines.
In theory this approach can produce vast amounts of energy: a single gram of plasma can generate more electricity than ten tons of coal. Yet it is also extremely hard to control in a practical fashion. ITER, the largest tokamak ever built, will hopefully find ways to do this, thereby generating usable amounts of power for the first time.
The experiment performed in America, by contrast, used lasers to heat and compress a small pellet of hydrogen. That triggered fusion within the pellet, but the reaction was brief and generated little in the way of power. While it is theoretically possible to scale that up, the work needed to do so has barely begun.
ITER, then, is still the world’s best bet for a new era of nuclear fusion. Just don’t expect that era to come any time soon.
A Green Comet Approaches
In March last year astronomers spotted a comet heading towards the inner Solar System. Catchily named “C/2022 E3”, the comet last week reached its closest point to the Sun. Now, as it heads back to the icy fringes of the Solar System, it is set to pass within a few million miles of Earth.
Comets, unlike asteroids, are mostly made of frozen gases and liquids. They spend most of their time far from the Sun: a cloud of comets probably extends for light years around the Solar System. Yet, occasionally, one makes the long journey towards the realm of the planets; voyaging across vast distances and times to reach us.
Once they do, they begin to melt, releasing a stream of dust and gas. These streams, as Kepler realised in 1619, are blown outwards by the pressure of sunlight and the solar wind. That, effectively, sculpts them into the elegant tails seen from Earth.
Much attention has been drawn to the green colour of C/2022 E3. Yet, in truth, many comets glow green; a colour that emerges from carbon atoms in the comet’s core. C/2022 E3 probably deserves more attention for its likely brightness: the comet may shine strongly enough to be visible, just about, to the human eye.
Comets are, of course, unpredictable things. They can suddenly fade or brighten without warning; or, in some cases, disintegrate under the heat of the Sun. Still, C/2022 E3 should be visible (with binoculars or telescopes) for the next few weeks.
Soyuz Capsule
An accident on the International Space Station was caused by a meteoroid, investigators recently found. The incident, which took place in December, punctured the cooling system of the docked Soyuz capsule. Afterwards, coolant dramatically spewed out for hours.
Though the capsule can still fly and even return to Earth without this coolant, it would be risky for astronauts to trust it for their passage home. That is a problem for the Russian cosmonauts currently onboard the station. Not only did they plan to travel home on the Soyuz, but they also relied on it for escape in an emergency.
Russia has thus decided to bring forward the next planned Soyuz launch. Originally intended to carry a new crew of cosmonauts in March, the Soyuz will instead fly uncrewed in mid-February. The damaged capsule, meanwhile, will be loaded with cargo and left to fly automatically back to Earth.