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Wyrd Smythe's avatar

For a while now I've wondered about the circumstances necessary for intelligent life to evolve, and I speculate that at least six conditions with odds of just 1 in 10,000 might be necessary. Right star, right planet, big iron core with lots of heat, maybe a big moon, maybe gas giants in the outer system for shielding, etc. If true, or even close, it would imply the odds of intelligent life are on the order of 1:10²⁴. Compared to 10¹¹ stars in the Milky way or even the 10²² stars in the visible universe.

If this speculation is at all accurate, we may be alone here. Intelligent life in the universe might be rare and extraordinary.

Kevin McMullen, MD's avatar

Love this concept of stellar twins, thanks for the writeup. I wonder whether the distribution of matter around these stars is similar to that of our solar system, or whether there are multiple paths to get to a star like ours.

The new SETI information is fascinating. Sagan's idea of civilizations beaming our first signal back at us was incredibly sticky, but also impossible... something he probably knew as he wrote it.

You may like this essay I did a few months ago on that idea...

https://astrodermatologist.substack.com/p/most-kernels-pop-alone?r=6n71ui

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